* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 43 51 58 67 69 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 43 51 58 67 69 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 25 27 31 37 46 57 67 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 18 16 16 14 13 16 9 19 20 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 165 175 161 161 153 136 113 96 92 70 51 52 63 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 160 160 161 162 163 164 163 162 159 158 157 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.9 -52.2 -53.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 74 75 74 73 71 68 68 69 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 9 11 12 14 18 17 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 28 35 40 53 51 62 61 76 64 59 45 200 MB DIV 78 74 86 111 124 129 126 113 93 130 103 125 64 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 463 423 382 392 402 450 532 646 779 912 1000 1032 954 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.0 11.4 10.7 10.1 9.7 9.8 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 100.2 99.8 99.8 99.8 100.2 100.9 102.1 103.5 105.1 106.4 107.3 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 2 1 1 4 5 7 8 8 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 59 55 53 54 55 58 62 63 79 85 65 58 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 18. 26. 33. 42. 44. 51. 50. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/18/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##