* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 50 56 59 64 73 78 84 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 50 56 59 64 73 78 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 32 35 40 46 53 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 15 17 18 18 18 18 23 19 18 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 0 -6 -4 -8 0 0 5 -4 SHEAR DIR 154 164 173 182 180 153 146 132 106 95 89 70 51 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 158 156 153 150 150 151 151 152 155 157 157 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -51.6 -52.3 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 83 83 81 77 72 68 63 62 63 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 11 13 15 18 22 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 16 24 27 38 41 52 59 84 89 95 99 200 MB DIV 63 90 97 102 94 98 99 91 86 102 69 115 108 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -4 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 499 463 427 400 374 347 373 405 486 583 736 893 1044 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.6 14.4 13.8 13.2 12.3 11.4 10.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 101.8 102.2 102.4 102.6 102.8 103.1 103.4 104.1 105.0 106.3 107.6 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 4 3 2 2 3 5 6 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 62 57 50 46 44 44 42 39 33 38 57 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 24. 26. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 31. 34. 39. 48. 53. 59. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/17/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##