* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 30 36 36 41 43 47 52 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 30 36 36 41 43 47 52 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 24 25 27 30 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 12 12 13 12 8 5 13 9 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 0 1 -3 -3 -1 2 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 260 227 207 225 233 214 200 187 123 119 134 112 106 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 164 163 159 155 151 151 153 155 154 152 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 79 79 82 81 75 69 69 64 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 6 9 7 8 8 10 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -20 -20 -17 -15 3 17 41 42 73 70 75 84 200 MB DIV 72 68 70 60 67 44 60 46 31 49 43 76 95 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 1 2 0 -1 -2 0 1 0 -4 0 LAND (KM) 585 533 484 448 418 353 275 220 205 249 310 439 577 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.2 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.3 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.1 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.5 99.2 99.8 100.4 101.2 101.5 101.4 101.3 101.6 102.3 103.5 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 1 3 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 59 58 59 59 52 34 28 26 26 28 37 33 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 3. 5. 5. 7. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 11. 11. 16. 18. 22. 27. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/16/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##