* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912012 07/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 90 93 91 86 68 48 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 90 93 91 86 68 48 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 92 93 86 78 62 48 37 29 23 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 7 4 9 16 17 14 16 14 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -2 0 -4 -1 0 0 2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 36 17 1 342 316 178 181 197 201 200 210 210 213 SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.7 24.3 23.3 22.8 22.4 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 115 109 105 93 88 83 79 77 75 73 69 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 58 55 54 51 44 40 39 34 33 30 28 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -24 -23 -28 -39 -43 -50 -34 -25 -4 4 18 20 200 MB DIV 10 -5 -9 4 -4 -23 -19 -17 -11 -17 -10 -5 -9 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 838 852 876 877 887 901 937 968 976 979 985 987 978 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.4 118.1 119.2 120.1 120.9 121.5 121.9 122.3 122.7 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -25. -33. -40. -45. -48. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 13. 20. 23. 23. 19. 14. 10. 7. 6. 6. 4. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 13. 11. 6. -12. -32. -51. -65. -73. -79. -88. -96. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912012 INVEST 07/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 55.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)