* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912012 07/27/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 57 57 50 40 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 57 57 50 40 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 59 59 58 51 44 36 29 24 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 8 10 6 7 8 11 14 16 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -4 -5 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 19 21 16 358 345 302 259 249 243 234 235 230 228 SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.3 23.6 23.2 22.8 22.5 22.2 21.9 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 120 117 114 106 98 93 89 85 81 78 75 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 70 67 60 56 57 50 46 39 34 30 27 24 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -8 -12 -8 -14 -35 -50 -53 -43 -39 -31 -17 -8 200 MB DIV 10 11 2 7 -2 -30 -27 -11 -5 -15 -9 0 -13 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 1 2 0 3 1 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1023 1040 1069 1101 1119 1166 1245 1305 1350 1400 1440 1493 1527 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.0 117.0 117.9 118.7 120.5 122.2 123.6 124.9 126.0 126.9 127.8 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. -10. -20. -29. -36. -41. -49. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912012 INVEST 07/27/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)