* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 11/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 30 31 34 34 40 41 40 44 40 53 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 9 8 8 12 8 5 4 4 3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 213 211 207 205 211 223 233 232 237 237 235 230 237 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.4 27.4 28.5 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 148 149 148 144 136 137 150 158 158 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.6 -55.5 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 57 55 53 49 49 50 53 49 45 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 21 13 7 9 -2 -8 -35 -43 -64 -44 -31 200 MB DIV 69 89 89 73 51 8 20 25 24 27 20 20 23 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 -1 0 -2 7 1 5 1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 514 465 416 394 372 377 457 523 443 324 167 150 -135 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.2 19.1 20.2 21.4 22.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 108.4 108.1 108.0 107.9 108.1 109.1 110.3 111.3 111.2 109.8 107.5 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 2 1 3 5 6 6 7 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 38 38 38 37 32 24 22 39 52 34 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -23. -29. -32. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -21. -28. -34. -39. -41. -43. -45. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 11/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)