* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 11/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 28 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 28 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 29 33 38 41 40 40 44 44 44 48 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 12 11 6 2 2 4 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 208 216 214 213 216 225 239 235 238 238 233 230 235 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 151 150 150 151 150 146 149 155 158 158 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.7 -55.9 -55.7 -54.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 9 6 8 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 59 57 53 52 47 47 49 48 48 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 21 27 18 17 3 -5 -24 -39 -46 -31 -24 200 MB DIV 65 74 88 86 70 29 18 22 4 26 14 14 13 700-850 TADV 1 6 5 0 0 -2 8 2 4 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 515 452 390 350 311 277 316 369 334 260 225 82 -196 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.4 108.1 107.9 107.7 107.6 108.2 109.0 109.7 109.5 108.5 106.5 103.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 2 4 5 4 4 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 44 38 37 37 37 38 42 46 50 51 48 38 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -26. -32. -36. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -27. -30. -34. -35. -39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 11/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)