* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 11/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 30 28 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 28 28 30 36 41 40 44 43 42 43 42 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 13 11 12 11 11 12 6 3 1 5 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 210 210 217 215 215 222 233 238 235 244 235 235 236 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 151 151 150 151 151 150 149 153 158 160 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.6 -55.8 -54.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 9 8 8 7 8 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 57 57 54 50 47 48 47 49 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 16 22 27 8 13 -7 -13 -41 -44 -44 -23 200 MB DIV 70 78 77 84 73 36 11 11 4 0 14 13 1 700-850 TADV 1 1 6 3 -1 -1 0 8 -1 3 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 576 508 441 379 317 259 270 319 375 326 269 164 -91 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 108.8 108.4 108.1 107.7 107.4 107.6 108.3 109.1 109.5 108.9 107.2 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 2 2 4 4 4 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 37 37 37 39 39 43 46 52 49 35 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -26. -32. -35. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -28. -34. -39. -42. -44. -46. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 11/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)