* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 11/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 30 32 33 38 46 50 48 52 57 51 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 11 5 7 0 0 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 211 213 215 217 215 221 226 234 229 234 233 249 254 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.0 25.2 25.2 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 147 146 146 142 134 122 114 116 141 137 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 -56.0 -55.7 -54.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 4 4 1 3 700-500 MB RH 60 55 55 54 51 53 48 47 46 48 47 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 9 9 8 0 -8 -14 -20 -28 -35 -20 11 200 MB DIV 69 65 72 69 69 43 21 20 13 20 33 0 -4 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 4 2 1 2 12 6 11 0 -10 6 LAND (KM) 655 612 573 532 491 422 348 313 312 275 97 66 -371 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.1 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.3 22.5 24.2 26.1 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 109.8 109.7 109.7 109.7 109.9 110.5 111.4 112.5 113.3 113.0 110.5 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 11 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 38 34 29 35 43 35 7 1 0 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -20. -30. -39. -45. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -19. -28. -35. -44. -50. -52. -52. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 11/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)