* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 40 40 40 38 34 29 26 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 40 40 40 38 34 29 26 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 33 32 31 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 3 8 16 21 18 15 17 22 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -6 -4 -7 -5 0 1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 56 90 66 310 328 319 324 319 318 294 278 264 270 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.7 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 139 137 132 137 138 134 134 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 58 58 61 58 57 54 59 55 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -10 -5 -8 -8 -7 -10 -12 -18 -24 -30 -23 -25 200 MB DIV 44 42 15 -10 -7 -14 -7 20 16 3 9 9 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 4 5 6 8 LAND (KM) 2597 2512 2397 2277 2160 1907 1616 1358 1099 872 768 819 1008 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.2 134.4 135.7 136.9 139.6 142.8 145.9 149.3 152.6 156.1 159.4 162.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 13 14 16 16 17 17 17 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 20 14 9 6 7 13 8 13 20 12 15 29 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. 4. 1. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)