* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 29 31 32 33 32 28 23 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 29 31 32 33 32 28 23 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 26 24 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 2 3 9 14 8 7 13 19 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 4 3 3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 279 263 320 195 324 306 314 310 265 273 271 267 260 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 139 139 136 131 128 125 122 118 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 65 68 65 63 61 58 59 54 58 52 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -20 -8 -4 -3 7 7 12 9 7 -17 -19 -35 200 MB DIV 21 33 26 30 32 7 10 31 46 40 4 -10 6 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 4 4 9 15 12 LAND (KM) 2053 2127 2205 2294 2385 2506 2206 1892 1562 1227 880 568 300 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.2 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.9 128.0 129.2 130.3 132.7 135.6 138.6 141.7 144.8 147.9 150.6 153.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 13 14 15 15 16 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 10 8 6 10 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 3. -2. -8. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)