* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 33 42 47 50 50 50 43 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 33 42 47 50 50 50 43 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 41 43 43 41 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 1 4 6 4 9 14 9 6 14 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -3 5 6 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 266 277 359 55 79 19 322 330 355 297 270 259 255 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 144 144 142 139 135 130 131 126 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 69 70 64 61 63 59 62 59 60 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -25 -22 -9 -6 0 7 5 9 0 -6 -24 -22 200 MB DIV 30 25 45 42 49 10 -10 15 48 30 31 15 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 7 9 16 LAND (KM) 2030 2097 2169 2244 2322 2503 2446 2137 1809 1453 1097 761 471 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.5 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.6 126.7 127.8 128.8 131.1 133.7 136.7 139.9 143.3 146.7 149.9 152.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 11 12 14 15 16 17 17 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 9 9 12 16 10 14 13 6 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 8. 17. 22. 25. 25. 25. 18. 13. 10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)