* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/25/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 30 39 46 49 49 49 45 40 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 30 39 46 49 49 49 45 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 40 43 43 41 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 2 4 4 6 15 11 9 9 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -2 0 7 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 331 244 302 34 53 58 335 321 340 346 273 287 253 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.3 26.3 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 144 145 144 142 141 137 131 128 128 124 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 68 68 63 63 61 60 64 64 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -28 -26 -22 -10 -5 5 6 6 5 -1 -17 -23 200 MB DIV 47 29 21 42 39 26 7 -2 23 48 21 15 13 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 2 1 8 11 LAND (KM) 1930 1989 2052 2123 2197 2363 2555 2333 2034 1730 1402 1085 798 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.2 125.2 126.3 127.4 129.5 132.0 134.7 137.6 140.5 143.6 146.6 149.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 14 15 15 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 9 8 13 15 10 13 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 6. 14. 21. 24. 24. 24. 20. 15. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/25/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)