* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 29 38 44 45 46 46 42 38 37 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 29 38 44 45 46 46 42 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 23 25 29 33 35 35 35 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 0 2 4 6 5 5 9 9 5 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -5 -6 -1 -2 0 5 3 1 SHEAR DIR 227 343 120 344 62 61 231 295 336 356 353 313 301 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 141 141 140 138 135 130 126 124 123 120 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 66 64 64 63 62 58 61 56 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 11 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -16 -17 -13 -9 1 9 16 16 18 2 -9 -26 200 MB DIV 80 57 42 27 35 55 43 9 26 26 9 -6 -14 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 2 1 2 9 LAND (KM) 1810 1871 1922 1975 2032 2173 2371 2471 2187 1877 1547 1232 960 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 9 7 6 5 0 0 9 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 4. 13. 19. 20. 21. 21. 17. 13. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)