* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 34 40 45 49 49 48 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 34 40 45 49 49 48 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 22 22 24 26 28 29 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 5 8 8 9 4 6 9 11 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 -4 0 2 0 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 286 328 347 352 336 47 46 358 11 355 13 7 38 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 146 145 145 146 144 141 137 131 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 69 70 68 70 66 68 68 71 70 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -13 -13 -18 -12 -3 0 4 2 1 -5 -17 -24 200 MB DIV 81 81 60 47 29 61 67 49 27 13 21 25 3 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 2 2 6 7 8 LAND (KM) 1666 1720 1779 1835 1895 2039 2184 2362 2526 2353 2004 1685 1390 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 25 17 13 11 6 11 14 8 17 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 15. 20. 24. 24. 23. 20. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)