* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 53 59 62 63 62 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 53 59 62 63 62 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 42 47 53 57 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 6 6 6 10 7 6 3 7 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 308 299 315 1 6 24 50 43 67 33 349 344 1 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 146 146 145 145 143 140 137 130 127 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 68 71 69 67 67 67 64 63 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -7 -7 -8 -7 5 14 17 13 11 3 -3 200 MB DIV 86 68 59 66 71 56 33 44 24 7 2 18 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 1569 1615 1669 1719 1774 1908 2046 2197 2350 2520 2237 1931 1646 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 12 13 11 12 13 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 34 32 27 15 13 8 5 8 5 19 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 29. 32. 33. 32. 27. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)