* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/24/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 44 49 51 53 50 46 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 44 49 51 53 50 46 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 35 37 40 43 47 49 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 3 4 7 7 3 5 4 5 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -3 -5 -7 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 326 304 281 256 301 17 27 71 62 359 327 321 324 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.1 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 146 146 146 142 138 137 136 135 126 122 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 69 67 68 66 65 67 65 58 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 -12 -11 -13 -17 -15 -5 -3 -1 -8 -11 -15 200 MB DIV 85 69 47 45 57 31 19 38 44 10 -4 -18 -19 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 2 5 8 LAND (KM) 1507 1542 1572 1616 1666 1798 1908 2049 2207 2389 2325 2000 1658 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 33 32 28 16 6 4 1 0 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 1. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 14. 19. 21. 23. 20. 16. 8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/24/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)