* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 36 37 36 31 28 22 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 36 37 36 31 28 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 27 26 24 23 22 22 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 6 2 5 3 1 1 3 6 12 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 -2 -2 -3 -6 -1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 275 270 283 303 255 229 273 264 18 70 227 256 294 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 146 144 143 141 131 127 123 123 120 110 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 70 70 71 69 67 67 64 60 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 3 4 0 -5 -13 -9 -19 -12 -7 -12 -14 -22 -24 200 MB DIV 55 55 65 73 70 64 39 28 14 -1 -1 -14 -22 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 1242 1286 1335 1394 1429 1488 1587 1688 1796 1933 2097 2268 2171 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.8 113.7 114.7 115.6 117.7 119.8 122.0 124.1 126.4 128.9 131.8 134.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 36 39 34 27 20 14 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -16. -14. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 6. 3. -3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)