* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 44 46 47 47 44 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 44 46 47 47 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 30 31 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 2 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 101 239 276 278 283 153 73 335 332 43 148 253 257 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 145 143 142 135 131 128 126 123 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 72 72 71 71 67 66 64 63 63 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 8 5 3 -5 -4 -11 -2 0 2 -3 -10 200 MB DIV 43 36 46 74 85 65 61 43 32 16 23 0 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 3 6 2 LAND (KM) 1239 1284 1335 1410 1447 1536 1640 1761 1883 2033 2191 2354 2286 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 38 44 47 45 32 21 12 1 6 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. 19. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)