* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 52 60 63 64 64 66 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 52 60 63 64 64 66 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 36 40 44 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 3 3 5 3 1 4 2 5 4 6 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 2 5 12 SHEAR DIR 39 91 174 232 304 212 149 89 98 95 91 309 256 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.2 26.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 148 146 143 143 137 132 131 126 125 118 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 72 72 71 69 67 65 66 64 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 14 15 16 16 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 8 8 10 4 5 3 0 2 6 11 3 200 MB DIV 41 37 40 52 80 73 73 73 51 35 30 19 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 2 3 7 LAND (KM) 1210 1254 1306 1374 1431 1500 1590 1724 1858 2002 2156 2317 2385 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 39 47 45 38 23 16 2 6 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 27. 35. 38. 39. 39. 41. 35. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)