* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/22/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 52 56 58 61 59 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 52 56 58 61 59 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 31 32 34 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 2 4 4 3 2 1 7 6 6 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 -2 0 1 2 6 -1 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 35 49 133 193 270 318 213 184 89 103 62 47 329 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 148 144 143 142 134 130 130 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 73 73 72 71 71 68 66 65 61 62 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 21 12 5 0 0 4 0 5 5 15 12 13 3 200 MB DIV 40 34 23 23 30 70 36 54 51 19 15 4 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 0 1 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1179 1213 1255 1307 1366 1462 1546 1661 1797 1934 2080 2254 2408 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 35 40 48 44 24 16 8 4 6 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 12. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 36. 34. 31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/22/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)