* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 36 42 45 44 46 46 45 45 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 36 42 45 44 46 46 45 45 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 33 34 32 31 31 32 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 3 4 3 3 5 3 10 8 2 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -1 4 4 3 4 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 9 50 70 189 193 293 248 148 147 104 133 78 254 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.1 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 146 147 146 143 142 141 134 125 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 75 72 71 72 71 68 66 67 66 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 15 14 15 15 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 21 16 13 5 7 -1 10 14 25 25 20 7 200 MB DIV 50 53 63 58 39 59 60 70 37 72 12 12 17 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 1 1 3 4 5 3 5 LAND (KM) 1141 1167 1186 1224 1269 1375 1437 1509 1594 1672 1753 1862 2015 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.2 111.0 111.9 112.8 114.6 116.4 118.2 119.9 121.6 123.5 125.6 128.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 37 35 40 48 41 22 17 15 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 17. 20. 19. 21. 21. 20. 20. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)