* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 49 53 57 59 59 58 55 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 49 53 57 59 59 58 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 39 38 39 39 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 6 3 8 5 2 6 6 6 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 0 -3 0 1 0 -4 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 32 26 37 82 80 264 263 128 134 135 131 247 219 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.3 26.8 25.6 25.0 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 145 144 142 138 137 132 120 114 112 114 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 75 73 70 71 64 64 62 59 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 10 10 11 11 13 13 15 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 38 28 23 16 12 5 4 2 21 17 26 16 24 200 MB DIV 66 56 54 58 47 41 59 33 42 24 2 14 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 1077 1092 1108 1126 1153 1251 1293 1376 1499 1607 1753 1944 2112 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.4 110.3 111.2 112.0 113.9 115.9 118.1 120.3 122.5 124.8 127.4 130.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 33 30 29 36 25 14 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 34. 33. 30. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)