* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 49 54 57 56 52 50 49 47 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 49 54 57 56 52 50 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 42 44 43 40 37 34 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 1 2 1 8 8 6 9 7 10 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 1 4 6 -3 0 0 2 -3 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 48 36 25 36 46 265 281 267 237 204 165 130 179 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.2 25.2 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 146 144 143 138 137 134 126 116 112 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 75 73 71 70 69 64 62 61 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 12 13 15 15 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 28 21 14 0 0 -1 14 21 36 43 43 200 MB DIV 74 73 55 74 68 27 68 57 70 56 42 7 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 1063 1073 1089 1098 1109 1179 1241 1295 1395 1519 1646 1810 2004 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.3 111.1 112.9 114.8 116.8 119.0 121.2 123.4 125.7 128.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 33 33 30 33 26 19 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 9. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 24. 29. 32. 31. 27. 25. 24. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)