* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 45 53 59 59 59 55 54 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 40 45 53 59 59 59 55 54 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 45 48 47 44 40 37 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 6 4 9 9 11 9 11 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 65 64 37 56 21 270 271 259 236 222 177 155 181 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.2 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 146 144 141 136 134 129 116 106 103 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 81 78 80 76 75 71 71 69 66 65 62 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 36 23 16 4 -6 -9 -4 16 23 32 31 200 MB DIV 31 68 77 63 74 41 47 59 53 72 38 31 4 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 1058 1050 1053 1062 1078 1089 1172 1225 1279 1391 1496 1638 1819 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.0 107.9 108.8 109.6 111.2 113.1 115.1 117.3 119.6 122.0 124.4 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 35 33 35 35 37 23 13 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 9. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 34. 34. 34. 30. 29. 26. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)