* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 26 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 26 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 26 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 17 16 10 10 21 24 25 29 38 46 40 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 1 6 0 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 304 312 311 286 264 264 267 273 248 250 250 254 263 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 137 138 136 132 131 132 132 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -55.2 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 65 65 64 56 58 57 56 51 48 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -7 -6 -6 -10 -16 -16 -13 0 -8 8 13 26 200 MB DIV 26 14 23 8 20 34 58 60 60 30 15 9 8 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 1 0 -2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1100 1120 1145 1166 1190 1240 1280 1286 1301 1323 1384 1444 1521 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.3 16.2 15.9 15.7 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.4 117.0 117.6 118.1 119.2 120.1 120.7 120.9 121.1 121.6 122.2 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 22 33 31 22 13 7 1 0 0 0 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -14. -22. -28. -32. -35. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)