* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 33 34 32 28 26 22 20 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 33 34 32 28 26 22 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 7 13 16 13 15 21 18 22 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 0 -4 -6 -5 -5 -7 -5 -2 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 253 201 301 284 282 300 278 259 252 259 252 256 253 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 145 142 142 142 141 137 133 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 67 72 70 72 67 65 60 59 56 55 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 15 12 11 -7 -1 -9 -15 -27 -25 -25 -11 200 MB DIV 89 69 36 7 -3 -6 22 40 30 38 50 30 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1040 1067 1099 1099 1087 1097 1141 1188 1236 1256 1245 1240 1236 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.3 115.3 116.4 117.5 118.5 119.3 119.7 119.9 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 41 37 30 25 19 11 17 31 23 16 13 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. 1. -3. -5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/29/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)