* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/28/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 42 48 51 51 50 46 44 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 42 48 51 51 50 46 44 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 40 41 41 42 43 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 11 6 2 9 9 13 11 16 17 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 1 1 0 -4 -7 -4 -4 -5 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 88 84 77 72 328 303 308 315 285 287 271 259 244 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 146 145 143 144 144 143 141 136 133 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 56 62 68 69 70 69 66 64 60 62 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 11 10 9 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 21 23 15 -1 1 -14 -17 -35 -31 -33 -23 200 MB DIV 17 54 77 85 80 0 25 16 19 -7 15 25 49 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1081 1101 1126 1148 1174 1182 1186 1227 1258 1321 1369 1394 1418 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.5 112.2 112.8 113.4 114.6 115.7 116.9 117.9 119.0 120.1 120.9 121.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 48 45 39 27 16 20 23 22 19 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 23. 26. 26. 25. 21. 19. 15. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/28/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)