* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 31 36 43 47 48 49 47 45 44 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 31 36 43 47 48 49 47 45 44 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 36 37 37 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 4 10 3 3 7 11 7 11 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -2 -2 -2 3 0 0 -6 -2 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 178 210 94 74 74 123 300 319 315 301 292 300 264 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 146 146 146 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 56 57 58 61 68 69 70 64 62 57 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 15 17 22 9 1 2 -7 -1 -9 -8 -12 200 MB DIV -47 -13 14 54 86 80 2 18 14 48 21 21 28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1069 1084 1103 1120 1141 1174 1179 1189 1217 1252 1301 1349 1401 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.3 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.1 117.0 117.9 118.6 119.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 42 47 48 47 37 27 20 14 16 19 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 23. 24. 22. 20. 19. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)