* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 52 54 53 52 49 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 52 54 53 52 49 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 33 36 39 39 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 17 11 13 12 13 12 13 14 18 32 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 70 77 87 92 95 110 138 130 155 181 198 211 203 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 27.8 26.5 25.0 25.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 156 155 153 152 150 141 128 113 114 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 76 78 80 81 75 75 66 55 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 10 18 25 37 53 39 50 41 53 53 52 200 MB DIV 42 32 30 35 49 89 130 91 60 55 84 62 52 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 -3 -4 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 706 723 750 773 806 871 937 933 860 779 647 449 240 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.5 14.3 15.1 16.3 17.6 19.4 21.3 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.2 106.2 107.3 108.3 110.4 112.0 113.3 114.3 114.9 115.0 114.5 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 8 8 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 50 47 47 43 44 41 22 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 33. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 32. 34. 33. 32. 29. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/12/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)