* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 23 30 37 41 44 44 42 40 37 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 23 30 37 41 44 44 42 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 27 29 30 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 17 18 14 14 17 14 11 16 17 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 4 8 SHEAR DIR 89 94 101 106 121 114 130 170 185 210 213 215 209 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.2 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 156 157 157 156 155 152 147 135 126 119 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 78 76 80 77 81 77 76 74 65 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 23 18 10 9 16 25 29 45 51 54 52 200 MB DIV 42 47 51 40 29 28 50 64 92 106 78 71 62 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 2 0 2 2 3 1 8 5 7 LAND (KM) 454 453 459 478 498 519 552 625 735 806 792 798 785 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.7 100.4 101.3 102.2 104.1 106.1 108.3 110.5 112.4 114.1 115.4 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 15 25 39 46 47 46 42 32 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 792 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 10. 17. 21. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)