* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 34 41 46 49 48 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 34 41 46 49 48 47 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 31 34 36 37 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 12 14 11 13 15 14 16 13 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 71 85 85 95 112 119 130 153 179 206 206 189 225 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 155 157 156 155 154 152 148 143 141 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 80 79 77 79 75 80 74 73 71 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 15 11 9 2 15 25 26 37 51 66 67 200 MB DIV 26 15 18 34 41 44 36 61 67 98 91 78 53 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 2 0 4 -2 8 7 LAND (KM) 465 468 479 499 520 567 604 676 783 908 958 1015 1061 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.7 100.4 101.2 102.0 103.9 106.0 108.2 110.4 112.6 114.7 116.6 118.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 16 22 33 47 47 44 41 41 31 21 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 36. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 28. 27. 27. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)