* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 09/28/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 35 36 41 47 50 53 52 52 50 49 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 40 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 20 23 25 23 25 18 19 25 17 24 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 2 -1 -3 0 -2 0 2 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 237 231 225 221 238 261 265 266 261 278 281 283 279 SST (C) 29.4 30.1 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 168 172 171 170 167 166 165 166 164 161 158 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 9 9 11 10 11 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 67 62 55 50 47 52 50 55 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 71 78 73 61 43 45 6 7 -16 -18 -23 0 200 MB DIV 83 89 93 65 34 -11 -21 -17 10 -25 -10 10 -9 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 222 113 89 -14 -116 -238 -230 -168 -118 -94 -24 93 200 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.7 24.0 24.8 25.5 25.7 24.7 23.3 21.8 20.5 19.4 18.5 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.6 108.4 107.8 107.1 105.7 104.8 104.3 104.2 104.4 104.6 105.2 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 10 7 5 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 57 61 2 5 5 5 4 7 8 56 44 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 16 CX,CY: 0/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 15. 18. 17. 17. 15. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 09/28/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)