* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 09/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 39 46 52 51 46 36 27 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 39 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 12 18 29 40 58 62 50 40 40 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 6 9 3 0 3 9 0 1 9 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 286 263 248 224 218 255 262 281 286 314 334 333 N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.3 30.7 31.1 30.2 29.5 27.8 26.0 24.7 24.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 164 169 172 171 167 159 141 120 106 102 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -53.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 8 10 6 7 2 3 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 71 68 59 48 40 38 37 37 31 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 54 61 72 80 53 21 -19 -23 -32 -32 -65 N/A 200 MB DIV 83 84 87 114 81 -7 -43 -50 -62 -69 -76 -72 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 2 -3 -2 0 -3 -1 -15 1 -15 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 280 255 219 130 52 -116 -281 -453 -633 -736 -741 -784 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 10 9 9 7 3 2 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 45 54 59 61 11 2 10 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 31. 31. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -7. -19. -32. -39. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 9. 16. 22. 21. 16. 6. -3. -11. -15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 09/28/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)