* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 09/27/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 47 53 56 56 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 47 52 46 46 45 44 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 37 36 39 44 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 4 12 16 18 21 22 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -4 -2 3 0 -4 -2 0 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 25 8 318 289 291 271 226 251 238 255 263 280 270 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 29.1 30.0 30.3 30.1 29.1 27.4 25.7 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 151 150 156 163 164 163 154 136 119 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 73 70 65 61 51 44 36 33 26 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -25 -27 12 31 45 47 14 13 7 22 22 31 200 MB DIV 77 56 68 86 96 82 41 11 -11 -27 -30 -29 -23 700-850 TADV -8 -4 0 1 2 1 0 0 2 4 10 11 10 LAND (KM) 510 467 428 386 360 157 18 19 -12 28 137 217 348 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.9 19.2 21.6 23.1 23.8 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.4 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.0 107.8 108.4 108.9 109.4 109.4 109.6 110.0 110.9 112.2 113.8 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 13 10 6 2 3 5 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 30 25 18 45 36 53 0 25 5 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 22. 28. 31. 31. 29. 28. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 09/27/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)