* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 09/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 41 46 47 46 44 41 38 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 41 46 47 46 44 41 38 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 39 40 39 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 11 10 6 5 4 6 13 18 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 3 1 -1 0 0 4 1 -1 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 62 29 33 32 14 44 101 177 198 230 243 234 236 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.1 26.3 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 158 156 149 135 125 118 114 109 103 95 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 8 8 9 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 73 71 64 61 53 42 37 31 26 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -26 -18 -20 -21 47 68 62 54 48 35 24 27 200 MB DIV 68 74 73 59 75 80 97 50 32 14 10 0 5 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -11 -8 -3 -5 -3 -5 -4 -3 0 0 8 LAND (KM) 652 645 648 637 637 640 485 393 387 362 391 466 539 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 17.2 19.0 20.5 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 106.2 107.1 108.1 109.1 110.9 112.1 112.8 113.6 114.3 115.3 116.5 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 10 7 5 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 39 48 36 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 26. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 22. 21. 19. 16. 13. 8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 09/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)