* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 09/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 43 56 66 71 72 70 70 68 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 43 56 66 71 72 70 70 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 51 54 54 51 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 7 6 3 2 3 4 7 14 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -5 -6 1 -1 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 69 108 118 147 95 140 352 210 232 225 252 242 260 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 153 152 149 143 135 128 121 115 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 74 73 72 65 60 57 59 56 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 9 11 12 13 15 15 15 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 27 33 32 28 18 12 16 5 5 13 19 200 MB DIV 82 103 93 61 58 72 49 58 57 35 18 31 45 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 3 5 5 10 LAND (KM) 617 649 685 705 724 761 805 765 760 754 701 663 618 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 54 57 57 50 44 37 29 16 16 9 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 12. 14. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 18. 31. 41. 46. 47. 45. 45. 43. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 09/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)