* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 09/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 46 56 70 77 82 83 84 80 77 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 46 56 70 77 82 83 84 80 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 39 46 54 62 70 74 73 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 5 5 3 5 4 2 4 5 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -6 -3 -5 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 268 262 237 204 163 236 142 325 25 269 182 240 237 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 26.6 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 156 155 153 150 149 150 147 130 117 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.2 -52.9 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 75 71 69 72 72 72 72 69 63 59 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 10 13 14 16 17 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 12 20 31 45 50 48 40 24 16 18 29 21 23 200 MB DIV 59 79 88 95 111 71 78 67 80 83 73 34 51 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 -4 4 1 5 4 8 LAND (KM) 479 495 517 543 571 629 706 730 713 695 611 527 373 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 7 5 3 6 11 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 55 51 51 53 50 48 49 50 39 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 12. 15. 16. 19. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 21. 31. 45. 52. 57. 58. 59. 55. 52. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 09/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 89% is 7.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 72% is 9.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 54% is 9.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 54% is 16.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)