* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 09/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 37 42 53 61 68 75 78 81 83 85 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 37 42 53 61 68 75 78 81 83 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 51 58 66 74 82 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 5 6 4 4 5 2 2 2 3 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 0 0 -3 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 299 246 217 270 272 254 261 237 133 155 178 103 92 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 156 155 153 152 152 150 149 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 73 75 73 72 69 69 68 66 60 60 60 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 7 8 9 9 10 12 15 16 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 7 19 30 39 49 54 59 52 44 46 54 60 76 200 MB DIV 40 83 94 79 87 83 55 80 46 74 73 65 27 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -4 -6 -9 -4 -8 -5 -4 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 454 481 494 524 559 647 752 885 962 1032 1114 1166 1178 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.7 104.6 105.5 106.4 108.2 110.0 111.7 113.5 115.0 116.1 116.5 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 59 54 54 50 52 52 50 53 46 41 38 37 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 36. 43. 50. 53. 56. 58. 60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 09/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)