* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 09/19/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 35 42 45 51 54 56 64 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 35 42 45 51 54 56 64 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 28 28 29 31 34 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 2 4 5 8 13 11 8 6 1 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 3 0 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 60 69 86 227 264 259 231 259 304 313 167 110 83 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 159 160 160 158 157 155 153 151 150 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 76 76 72 73 70 73 75 72 69 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 12 12 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -14 -16 -12 -11 -9 6 10 27 31 36 30 25 200 MB DIV -10 -3 15 14 31 60 85 108 76 90 53 75 74 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 0 0 -2 -2 -9 -7 -10 -7 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 419 423 427 444 466 507 547 594 634 735 868 1020 1102 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.1 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.7 99.3 100.8 102.4 104.1 106.2 108.4 110.8 112.8 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 26 29 35 49 51 50 49 53 50 61 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 37. 40. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 10. 11. 13. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 22. 25. 31. 34. 36. 44. 51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 09/19/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)