* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 09/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 57 61 63 61 59 53 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 57 61 63 61 59 53 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 36 35 34 32 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 10 13 11 19 17 16 13 11 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 1 -3 0 -3 -1 -4 -3 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 62 34 19 12 356 350 342 313 324 337 324 355 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.3 27.6 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.4 23.3 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 156 155 147 139 131 126 122 118 96 74 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 80 76 75 71 63 61 61 57 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 14 16 18 20 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 -4 -16 -21 -9 2 10 16 15 0 -25 -29 200 MB DIV 46 66 65 49 46 88 87 61 19 20 32 -15 -42 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 0 -1 -7 -8 -10 -2 -23 -2 -4 2 LAND (KM) 311 299 301 314 323 390 493 470 509 576 619 658 658 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.3 21.4 22.9 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.5 105.3 106.1 106.9 108.4 109.9 111.5 113.3 115.1 117.1 118.8 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 64 57 46 41 34 15 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 32. 36. 38. 36. 34. 28. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 09/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)