* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 09/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 58 64 65 63 59 54 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 58 64 65 63 59 54 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 53 53 51 48 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 8 9 14 13 18 22 23 20 20 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 0 3 0 -2 0 -3 0 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 47 32 26 41 52 31 4 351 334 333 329 333 345 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.6 26.0 25.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 161 160 156 148 140 130 124 119 102 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -52.2 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 78 80 79 77 75 70 65 64 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 12 14 15 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -13 -22 -28 -26 -25 -23 -15 4 5 22 8 -17 200 MB DIV 4 10 23 36 67 81 83 66 87 41 24 29 3 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 -8 -7 -13 -5 -20 -3 LAND (KM) 399 399 403 394 392 358 361 424 511 465 501 535 635 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.1 20.1 21.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.2 101.2 102.2 103.1 105.0 106.8 108.5 110.1 111.9 113.8 115.9 118.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 53 64 70 67 66 58 36 16 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 33. 39. 40. 38. 34. 29. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 09/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)