* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 08/27/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 62 65 67 66 66 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 62 65 67 66 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 40 44 46 48 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 3 5 1 2 5 1 8 9 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 6 5 2 4 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 14 321 291 55 38 36 125 199 262 118 112 116 123 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 154 152 146 141 138 135 132 130 124 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 73 74 75 74 69 66 63 58 57 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 29 35 34 26 28 31 32 43 54 68 64 200 MB DIV 63 76 80 90 49 59 50 53 20 27 42 38 42 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -2 -5 -7 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 413 421 438 456 498 600 569 516 451 416 409 509 609 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 8 4 4 3 3 6 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 41 37 23 18 17 14 13 13 9 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 30. 37. 40. 42. 41. 41. 39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 08/27/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)