* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 08/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 53 55 53 50 47 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 53 55 53 50 47 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 32 35 37 39 41 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 9 10 11 11 4 6 1 2 10 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 4 4 7 -1 -1 -2 -5 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 321 333 306 318 331 359 358 305 248 231 176 178 158 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 157 156 153 148 141 134 128 122 114 101 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 70 72 72 73 73 67 64 56 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 2 7 25 32 28 32 33 40 55 72 84 200 MB DIV 48 57 73 88 89 37 55 47 42 24 32 41 32 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -4 -6 -12 -9 -7 -4 0 -1 0 4 2 LAND (KM) 480 479 455 451 457 483 559 545 527 576 650 738 876 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.2 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.7 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.6 104.4 105.3 106.2 108.1 109.9 111.5 112.9 114.1 115.4 116.9 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 41 42 42 27 18 15 11 8 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 28. 25. 22. 19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 08/27/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)