* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 08/26/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 47 53 60 67 68 68 66 64 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 47 53 60 67 68 68 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 39 44 48 53 58 63 66 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 2 2 1 5 4 5 3 3 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 6 6 6 3 0 1 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 54 36 17 319 348 12 324 48 66 1 44 239 178 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 156 157 158 158 155 151 147 141 134 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 67 65 69 68 67 68 64 63 62 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 4 2 0 -8 -1 9 18 13 19 27 35 200 MB DIV 44 53 49 48 60 29 61 36 64 31 26 33 46 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 532 525 522 525 528 557 564 587 616 692 635 621 622 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.8 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.3 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.3 100.9 101.6 102.2 103.9 105.8 107.8 109.5 111.0 112.3 113.4 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 9 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 28 33 41 50 58 45 34 36 25 10 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 22. 28. 35. 42. 43. 43. 41. 39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 08/26/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)