* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 08/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 42 52 58 64 67 68 69 68 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 42 52 58 64 67 68 69 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 29 32 36 41 48 55 62 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 4 4 4 6 11 6 5 6 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 0 0 8 3 4 0 1 -1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 58 54 30 15 347 22 30 83 52 86 50 68 73 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 153 155 155 156 157 153 150 148 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 72 70 64 65 63 64 64 66 62 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 3 6 5 -7 -12 -16 -1 10 6 10 6 200 MB DIV 13 33 44 44 55 54 37 66 45 54 50 55 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 562 569 580 587 593 634 665 692 714 760 817 852 869 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.4 13.1 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.6 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.3 99.9 100.4 101.0 101.6 103.2 105.0 106.9 108.7 110.2 111.4 112.5 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 9 7 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 30 36 44 49 65 57 50 43 37 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 32. 38. 44. 47. 48. 49. 48. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 08/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)