* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 07/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 57 65 67 73 66 61 57 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 57 65 67 73 66 61 57 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 31 35 38 41 43 43 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 12 7 7 11 14 14 15 13 7 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 0 0 -4 0 -1 0 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 1 15 20 8 345 42 61 45 44 43 44 344 319 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.1 24.6 23.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 149 148 146 142 138 133 124 108 94 81 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 82 83 81 80 78 76 78 75 72 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 12 14 18 19 18 23 21 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -11 -7 -8 -8 -2 1 9 24 26 36 19 7 200 MB DIV 92 98 87 97 104 44 65 61 69 39 65 7 13 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -4 -6 -6 -4 -3 -4 -9 -5 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 562 570 581 587 600 622 698 763 734 736 800 782 747 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 7 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 51 54 53 49 25 16 11 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 11. 11. 18. 15. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 32. 40. 42. 48. 41. 36. 32. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 07/12/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)