* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 07/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 40 52 63 70 71 70 69 70 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 40 52 63 70 71 70 69 70 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 43 45 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 11 9 12 15 17 13 11 11 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 2 5 0 2 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 5 339 323 359 35 350 24 26 27 18 32 356 14 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.7 25.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 152 150 147 145 142 138 130 117 107 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -52.2 -53.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 81 83 82 84 80 79 79 78 77 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 11 12 15 18 20 21 21 23 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -11 -9 -4 -8 -12 -18 -9 6 13 21 25 200 MB DIV 79 78 102 107 110 127 70 42 42 56 41 61 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -6 -7 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -4 LAND (KM) 607 617 621 623 628 630 650 678 750 797 750 762 812 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 40 40 45 58 50 29 16 9 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 16. 17. 19. 22. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 15. 27. 38. 45. 46. 45. 44. 45. 36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 07/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)