* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 07/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 54 64 72 75 71 74 74 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 54 64 72 75 71 74 74 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 39 43 48 51 55 58 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 11 12 12 10 17 15 16 14 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 0 4 -2 0 -4 -3 -7 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 16 3 16 358 356 40 28 49 48 47 58 7 339 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 153 152 150 147 144 142 139 138 134 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.3 -53.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 82 80 82 82 82 80 76 81 79 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 10 11 13 14 17 19 18 21 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -29 -30 -27 -23 -11 -21 -26 -25 -11 6 16 25 200 MB DIV 53 68 77 86 119 127 118 67 56 58 92 52 52 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 LAND (KM) 603 610 623 626 636 671 724 770 822 889 905 855 788 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.3 104.0 104.7 105.3 106.7 108.0 109.3 110.5 111.6 112.5 113.4 114.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 42 38 35 39 51 46 30 20 9 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 9. 14. 17. 15. 20. 22. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 29. 39. 47. 50. 46. 49. 49. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 07/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)