* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 07/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 47 58 65 69 67 69 67 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 47 58 65 69 67 69 67 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 38 42 47 51 54 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 19 14 12 9 2 9 13 16 14 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 -2 6 2 0 -6 -6 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 14 356 356 1 340 16 23 44 69 70 90 49 47 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 154 152 152 149 147 144 139 133 123 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 83 81 83 83 81 82 81 81 78 78 75 74 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 13 16 16 19 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -30 -26 -22 -24 -2 0 -3 -10 0 16 33 45 200 MB DIV 24 45 63 64 67 93 83 93 24 36 48 53 42 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 0 -5 -6 -9 -3 -4 -1 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 558 557 555 550 540 548 571 603 674 752 771 797 851 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.2 102.8 103.5 104.1 105.5 107.0 108.5 110.1 111.6 113.1 114.5 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 57 57 58 56 49 42 44 26 17 12 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 17. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 33. 40. 44. 42. 44. 42. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 07/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)